Randomized Algorithms (Spring 2010)/Balls and bins

Probability Basics

Independent events

We are all familiar with the concept of independent events:

Definition (Independent events): Two events [math]\displaystyle{ \mathcal{E}_1 }[/math] and [math]\displaystyle{ \mathcal{E}_2 }[/math] are independent if and only if [math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \Pr\left[\mathcal{E}_1 \wedge \mathcal{E}_2\right] &= \Pr[\mathcal{E}_1]\cdot\Pr[\mathcal{E}_2]. \end{align} }[/math]

This definition can be generalized to more events:

Definition (Independent events): Event [math]\displaystyle{ \mathcal{E}_1, \mathcal{E}_2, \ldots, \mathcal{E}_n }[/math] are mutually independent if and only if, for any subset [math]\displaystyle{ I\subseteq\{1,2,\ldots,n\} }[/math], [math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \Pr\left[\bigcap_{i\in I}\mathcal{E}_i\right] &= \prod_{i\in I}\Pr[\mathcal{E}_i]. \end{align} }[/math]

Note that in probability theory, the word "mutually independent" is not equivalent with "pair-wise independent", which we will learn in the future.

The union bound

We are familiar with the principle of inclusion-exclusion for finite sets.

Principle of Inclusion-Exclusion: Let [math]\displaystyle{ S_1, S_2, \ldots, S_n }[/math] be [math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] finite sets. Then [math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \left|\bigcup_{1\le i\le n}S_i\right| &= \sum_{i=1}^n|S_i| -\sum_{i\lt j}|S_i\cap S_j| +\sum_{i\lt j\lt k}|S_i\cap S_j\cap S_k|\\ & \quad -\cdots +(-1)^{\ell-1}\sum_{i_1\lt i_2\lt \cdots\lt i_\ell}\left|\bigcap_{r=1}^\ell S_{i_r}\right| +\cdots +(-1)^{n-1} \left|\bigcap_{i=1}^n S_i\right|. \end{align} }[/math]

The principle can be generalized to probability events.

Principle of Inclusion-Exclusion: Let [math]\displaystyle{ \mathcal{E}_1, \mathcal{E}_2, \ldots, \mathcal{E}_n }[/math] be [math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] events. Then [math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \Pr\left[\bigvee_{1\le i\le n}\mathcal{E}_i\right] &= \sum_{i=1}^n\Pr[\mathcal{E}_i] -\sum_{i\lt j}\Pr[\mathcal{E}_i\wedge \mathcal{E}_j] +\sum_{i\lt j\lt k}\Pr[\mathcal{E}_i\wedge \mathcal{E}_j\wedge \mathcal{E}_k]\\ & \quad -\cdots +(-1)^{\ell-1}\sum_{i_1\lt i_2\lt \cdots\lt i_\ell}\Pr\left[\bigwedge_{r=1}^\ell \mathcal{E}_{i_r}\right] +\cdots +(-1)^{n-1}\Pr\left[\bigwedge_{i=1}^n \mathcal{E}_{i}\right]. \end{align} }[/math]

The proof of the principle is due to measure theory, and is omitted here. The following inequality is implied (nontrivially) by the principle of inclusion-exclusion:

Theorem (the union bound): Let [math]\displaystyle{ \mathcal{E}_1, \mathcal{E}_2, \ldots, \mathcal{E}_n }[/math] be [math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] events. Then [math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \Pr\left[\bigvee_{1\le i\le n}\mathcal{E}_i\right] &\le \sum_{i=1}^n\Pr[\mathcal{E}_i]. \end{align} }[/math]

The name of this inequality is Boole's inequality. It is usually referred by its nickname "the union bound". The bound holds for arbitrary events, even if they are dependent. Due to this generality, the union bound is one of the most useful probability inequalities for randomized algorithm analysis.

Linearity of expectation

Let [math]\displaystyle{ X }[/math] be a discrete random variable. The expectation of [math]\displaystyle{ X }[/math] is defined as follows.

Definition (Expectation): The expectation of a discrete random variable [math]\displaystyle{ X }[/math], denoted by [math]\displaystyle{ \mathbb{E}[X] }[/math], is given by [math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \mathbb{E}[X] &= \sum_{x}x\Pr[X=x], \end{align} }[/math] where the summation is over all values [math]\displaystyle{ x }[/math] in the range of [math]\displaystyle{ X }[/math].

Balls-into-bins model

Imagine that [math]\displaystyle{ m }[/math] balls are thrown into [math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] bins, in such a way that each ball is thrown into a bin which is uniformly and independently chosen from all [math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] bins.

There are several interesting questions we could ask about this random process. For example:

• the probability that there is no bin with more than one balls (the birthday problem)
• the expected number of balls in each bin (occupancy problem)
• the maximum load of all bins with high probability (occupancy problem)
• the probability that there is no empty bin (coupon collector problem)

The birthday paradox

There are [math]\displaystyle{ m }[/math] students in the class. Assume that for each student, his/her birthday is uniformly and independently distributed over the 365 days in a years. We wonder what the probability that no two students share a birthday.

Due to the pigeonhole principle, it is obvious that for [math]\displaystyle{ m\gt 365 }[/math], there must be two students with the same birthday. Surprisingly, for any [math]\displaystyle{ m\gt 57 }[/math] this event occurs with more than 99% probability. This is called the birthday paradox. Despite the name, the birthday paradox is not a real paradox.

We can model this problem as a balls-into-bins problem. [math]\displaystyle{ m }[/math] different balls (students) are uniformly and independently thrown into 365 bins (days). More generally, let [math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] be the number of bins. We ask for the probability of the following event [math]\displaystyle{ \mathcal{E} }[/math]

[math]\displaystyle{ \mathcal{E} }[/math]: there is no bin with more than one balls (i.e. no two students share birthday).

We first analyze this by counting. There are totally [math]\displaystyle{ n^m }[/math] many ways of assigning [math]\displaystyle{ m }[/math] balls to [math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] bins. The number of assignments that no two balls share a bin is [math]\displaystyle{ {n\choose m}m! }[/math].

Thus the probability is given by:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \Pr[\mathcal{E}] = \frac{{n\choose m}m!}{n^m}. \end{align} }[/math]

Recall that [math]\displaystyle{ {n\choose m}=\frac{n!}{(n-m)!m!} }[/math]. Then

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \Pr[\mathcal{E}] = \frac{{n\choose m}m!}{n^m} = \frac{n!}{n^m(n-m)!} = \frac{n}{n}\cdot\frac{n-1}{n}\cdot\frac{n-2}{n}\cdots\frac{n-(m-1)}{n} = \prod_{k=1}^{m-1}\left(1-\frac{k}{n}\right). \end{align} }[/math]

A more "probabilistic" argument is as follows. The first ball is assigned into a bin. The probability that the second ball is assigned to a different ball is [math]\displaystyle{ \left(1-\frac{1}{n}\right) }[/math]. Conditioning on that the first two balls are assigned to two bins, the probability that the third ball is assigned to a bin different from the first two is [math]\displaystyle{ \left(1-\frac{2}{n}\right) }[/math]. Generally, conditioning on that the first [math]\displaystyle{ k-1 }[/math] balls are all in different bins, the probability that the [math]\displaystyle{ k }[/math]th bin is assigned to a different bin than the first [math]\displaystyle{ k-1 }[/math], is given by [math]\displaystyle{ \left(1-\frac{k-1}{n}\right) }[/math]. Since the the balls are independently assigned, the probability that all these occurs is:

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \Pr[\mathcal{E}]=\left(1-\frac{1}{n}\right)\cdot \left(1-\frac{2}{n}\right)\cdots \left(1-\frac{m-1}{n}\right) &= \prod_{k=1}^{m-1}\left(1-\frac{k}{n}\right), \end{align} }[/math]

which is the same as what we got by counting argument.

There are several ways of analyzing this formular. Here is a convenient one: Due to Taylor's expansion, [math]\displaystyle{ e^{-k/n}\approx 1-k/n }[/math]. Then

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \prod_{k=1}^{m-1}\left(1-\frac{k}{n}\right) &\approx \prod_{k=1}^{m-1}e^{-\frac{k}{n}}\\ &= \exp\left(-\sum_{k=1}^{m-1}\frac{k}{n}\right)\\ &= e^{-m(m-1)/2n}\\ &\approx e^{-m^2/2n}. \end{align} }[/math]

Therefore, for [math]\displaystyle{ m=\sqrt{2n\ln \frac{1}{\epsilon}} }[/math], the probability that [math]\displaystyle{ \Pr[\mathcal{E}]\approx\epsilon }[/math].

The occupancy problem

Now we ask about the loads of bins. Assuming that [math]\displaystyle{ m }[/math] balls are uniformly and independently assigned to [math]\displaystyle{ n }[/math] bins, for [math]\displaystyle{ 1\le i\le n }[/math], let [math]\displaystyle{ X_i }[/math] be the load of the [math]\displaystyle{ i }[/math]th bin, i.e. the number of balls assigned to the [math]\displaystyle{ i }[/math]th bin.

First, analyze [math]\displaystyle{ \mathbb{E}[X_i] }[/math] for each [math]\displaystyle{ i }[/math], the expected load of each bin.

Because there are totally [math]\displaystyle{ m }[/math] balls, it holds that [math]\displaystyle{ \sum_{i=1}^n X_i=m }[/math].

Therefore, due to the linearity of expectations,

[math]\displaystyle{ \begin{align} \sum_{i=1}^n\mathbb{E}[X_i] &= \mathbb{E}\left[\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\right] = \mathbb{E}\left[m\right] =m. \end{align} }[/math]

Because for each ball, the bin to which the ball is assigned is uniformly and independently chosen, the distribution of the loads of bins are identical. Thus [math]\displaystyle{ \mathbb{E}[X_i] }[/math] is the same for each [math]\displaystyle{ i }[/math]. Combining with the above equation, it holds that for every [math]\displaystyle{ 1\le i\le m }[/math], [math]\displaystyle{ \mathbb{E}[X_i]=\frac{m}{n} }[/math].